Be Kind to Your Country, Allow Kenya to Move Forward

Enigma Raila Odinga

WHEN WILL RAILA ODINGA GIVE KENYA A BREAK?

SAMPLE THIS HISTORY AND STORY

1. In August 1982, Raila at 37 was a co-mastermind of the aborted coup led by Senior Private Hezekiah Ochuka (God continue to rest his soul). A biography released in 2006 confirmed Rao's participation in the putsch. His father pleaded with Moi for dear son's life. A death sentence was substituted with 6 years of detention without trial. However an estimated 100 soldiers and 200 civilians caught perished during the coup's suppression. Capturing power through the gun aborted. 

2. Raila served two other detention stints (September 1988 to 12 June 1989), the third from 5 July 1990 alongside Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia for crusading for multi-party democracy. We cannot forget this sacrifice for Kenya's freedom from authoritarianism. 

3. In February 1992 Agwambo returned from exile in Norway to join the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) and served as Vice Chairman of the General Purposes Committee. After the split in FORD, Raila wrestled with Michael Kijana Wamalwa for chairmanship of FORD-KENYA. He viewed the Party as a necessary launch pad to high 1997 national politics. Upon suffering defeat at the hands of Kijana, Raila joined a new outfit: the National Development Party (NDP). A political vehicle had to be found to advance his future presidential ambitions. 

3. In 1997 Jakom predictably ran for the presidency for his FIRST TIME coming third (665, 725 votes) after Moi ( 2,445,801) and Mwai Kibaki ( 1,895,527). Wamalwa (505, 542) ànd Ngilu ( 469, 807) were 4th and 5th. Obviously Raila missed his coveted prize. 

4. After the 1997 elections, Raila Odinga decided to abandon the opposition to join his long time jailer and erstwhile political enemy. His NDP and Moi's KANU euphemistically became New KANU with Raila eventually serving as Secretary General, and energy minister from June 2001 to 2002. It has been reported in Wikipedia of him as follows: 

      " Previous admirers of Odinga saw him now as a sell-out to 

        a cause he had once championed by closing ranks with a 

        despot...it was apparent to many that Odinga hoped to 

        ascend to the presidency through KANU and with Moi's 

         support."

Wily Odinga had also realized that he needed lots of money for his future political journey. 

5. When the doyen of Kenyan politics Mzee Jaramogi said Moi 'sees politically far' like the proverbial giraffe, he had most probably promised his son and family would co-operate and partner with Moi the philosopher of politics, down the road. Such sweetener saved Raila's life and true to pragmatic,some would say opportunistic politics, the maverick politician joined Moi without thinking much about the blow he had inflicted on the opposition, pro-reform side. Moi used this new infusion of political blood to cleverly torpedo the gathering storm around the Struggle for a New Constitution. For Raila though his game plan was to be the most eminent politician queuing behind Moi to run for the 2002 presidency.

6. Unknown to Raila and many other politicians, Moi had other plans. He pulled out a surprise Uhuru Kenyatta card. In a huff, Raila led the former KANU stalwarts, now christened Rainbow Coalition into Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Later he endorsed (TOSHA) 9Mwai Kibaki of the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK) to form the National Rainbow Coalition ( NARC) to the chagrin of Nyachae, Saitoti and Kalonzo. Through a hurriedly negotiated and crafted MOU, LDP expected to partake of half the government and Raila to by pass his LDP comrades to become Prime Minister. NARC won convincingly (67% of the vote). But Kibaki did not hand the Prime Minister position to Raila or share the government in the manner anticipated. 

7. Possibly Moi knew Uhuru would not win, he would lose. Perhaps the strategy was to return a favour to the Kenyatta family by preparing/ grooming a future presidential candidate. Some pundits did suggest Moi did not mind Kibaki as president since the Man from Othaya was believed to be a reasonable chap interested in leading his country out of a hole, instead of settling scores. Raila expected to be made Prime minister so as to be in pole fault position for becoming the 4th.

8. Since Wamalwa was Vice President, Raila thought Kibaki would eventually prefer him as his successor. He did not see a choice place for himself on Kibaki's table. He began to agitate around the question of the trashed MOU. However had Raila acted strategically and supported Kibaki unreservedly, he would most probably have been appointed Vice President after Kijana Wamalwa's death paving the way to a smooth succession post Kibaki. For Raila his impatience and haste cost him dearly. 

9. After the MOU debacle, Raila mobilized a virile opposition against Kibaki using the constitutional debate to build the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as its leader in preparation for 2007. ODM conducted a nomination for the presidency where Raila emerged the party candidate for his SECOND BID ahead of Musalia and Ruto. The duo religiously supported him. Even initially Uhuru was a founder member of ODM. 

10. The post 2007 electoral period witnessed unprecedented violence and blood bath after Raila rejected the results. Kibaki (PNU) had 4,584,721; Raila (ODM) 4,352,993 and Kalonzo Musyoka ( ODM-K) 879,903. The combined ODM & ODM-K vote would have easily sent Kibaki home despite his development record. However even after Kalonzo joined Kibaki as Vice President, the mayhem continued. Kofi Annan mediated the warring parties and Raila got a NUSU MKATE ( half-a-loaf) government as Prime-Minister. In the meantime about 1300 people lost their lives, thousands were displaced and considerable property destroyed. It now appeared after Kibaki's second term lapsed, Raila was poised to become the 4 th. 

11. One must admire Raila's Sun Tzu 'The Art of War' type politics. Imagine he adroitly manoeuvred so that after the chaos ensuing from his candidature, his supporter Ruto and Kibaki's protégé Uhuru ( and other collateral officials) were the ones destined for and transported to Hague's ICC. That eventuality seemed to clear two potential candidates from his THIRD 2013 presidential run. All Raila had to do was court Kalonzo and Musalia. Victory seemed a heart beat away. However Uhuru and Ruto bounced back to carry the day ( 6,173, 433 votes), Raila and Kalonzo ( 5,340,000 votes) and Musalia-Kioni ( 483, 981) came third. If Raila had had Musalia on his side, his claim that the election was compromised would have had more credence. The ICC tag became a boon for the underdog candidates, not a hindrance. The Supreme Court upholding of the electoral verdict put Raila in a tight corner. Then, he did not want to appear to undermine the rule of law doctrine. He was still protecting his dimming reform credentials popularised by the media and sustained through public gullibility. 

12. With Kalonzo and Mudavadi by his side in 2017 in his FOURTH race, Raila ( 6,822,812) still lost to Uhuru and Ruto ( 8,223, 369). The Supreme Court nullified the presidential election. Raila strategically mobilized his supporters to boycott the repeat election. Possibly his team lacked campaign resources. Or he wanted to build momentum for his next move.

13. Raila subsequently deployed the novel strategy of swearing himself as People's president courtesy of Miguna Miguna whom he unceremoniously dumped thereafter. Now he gave the impression he was going to run a parallel government or even overthrow the existing one through People's Power. Uhuru, thinking that he would have no room to complete his final term peacefully and tidy up family business, conceded to a political HANDSHAKE with Raila. The latter became a co-president of sorts without occupying any formal political office. His 2017 companions ( Kalonzo, Musalia, Wetangula) were not incorporated into the hand shake ostensibly because they refused to 'eat' the Oath. Raila was now confident come 2022 the State would generously open its coffers, and Uhuru would authorize state machinery to be the wind beneath his FIFTH presidential ballot. Uhuru and Kalonzo stood with him. He never imagined Musalia and Wetangula would bolt. 

14. Once more in 2022, Raila (6,942, 930) failed to be the 5 th. Ruto and Gachagua (7,176,141) beat him. He went to the Supreme Court and lost as well. Currently he is demonising the IEBC and its former Chairman. Whenever he loses an election, he viciously targets the electoral body so as to rob it of any legitimacy. Raila's argument now is he won the election and the MASS ACTION that he has called is also in response to HIGH COST OF LIVING. Ruto was sworn in on 13 September 2022; swore his cabinet on 27 October 2022 and his principal secretaries on 1 December 2022. By any definition this is a very new government.

15. The Ruto administration found the economy mismanaged and devastated by the hand shake government. The public debt stood at about 9 trillion shillings. Kenya was at the verge of bankruptcy. Even the so-called subsidies for basic food stuff did not in reality lead to lower prices and yet the subsidies were being pocketed by politically correct individuals.

16. Clearly Raila's 2023 mass action threat is another route towards power sharing ONE MORE TIME. His group believes they cannot stay in the political cold for five years. They see power as a new means of production; indeed the most valuable of all. Because a large number of Kenyans voted for Raila, he must share power. Or even grab all of it through a civilian coup after successful mass action.

17. When all is said and done, Raila keeps on miscalculating and dumping/recycling allies when he deems it expedient. He believes one can win power or even grab it By Any Means Necessary. His pursuit for power is Machiavellian and not premised on principle even though he has been styled the Father of the push for multi-Party politics, devolution, reforms and the 2010 constitution. Outside the detention years, Raila has succeeded to create the myth of being what he is not. 

18. It is TIME Raila gave Kenyans a break. He can lead the opposition into constructively extracting accountability from the current government. He can strengthen Azimio-One Kenya Alliance and hand over the baton to a successor arrived at through compromise. After running FIVE TIMES TO ULTIMATELY BE THE FIFTH, such a candidate in a democratic dispensation would hang up his boots so his political affiliation can offer a fresh candidate. One enduring legacy is to plan for one's succession.

19. From this account, Raila's political strategies seem jinxed. After making grave political errors, he then blames institutions and others and puts the People of Kenya at great risk as he pursues his enduring dream to lead Kenya as President. We must all agree the 2022 elections is over. The next scheduled election is in 2027. In between these two years it is time to work with and for Kenyans. How can the economy be revived and the high cost of living brought down in the midst of mass action disruption? Those who plan such do not want a relief for the people and yet they want people to believe they are working for the people's best interests. Kenyans must demand that all politicians focus on revamping the economy and society. Let us do a HARAMBEE for fixing Kenya. 

20. Raila Odinga Oginga, Agwambo, Jakom, the Enigma... it is time for you to be kind to your country and people. There is more to life than perennial politicking. We still appreciate your role in the opposition. You can secure a real legacy by allowing Kenya to move forward. By giving her a break. That way history and our people will be kind to you too. You will become our Hero for sure.